What's The Reason Behind North Korea's Taepodong Missile Preparations? linked-file-source from the International section.
"Will they or won't they attack?"
As both U.S. and Japanese governments consider holding UN Security Council meetings and revisiting economic sanctions, so too will 融和的なS. Korea and China have little choice but to react to the launching of the long-range missiles. Though international calls for self-restraint are self-evident, North Korea continues its tenuous "battle of nerves" to call-out the U.S. for direct negotiations.
[Japanese] Self-Defense Forces and US Forces, Japan, proceed with mutual intelligence-gathering operations:
According to Reuters, a number of US authorities confirm that the Taepodong missiles have been fueled, the Japanese and American governments have not yet formally confirmed this.
ASAHI reports the condition (6/19) of the missiles as:
- 1) Stage-2 booster rockets confirmed
2) Unclear whether or not warheads have been loaded
3) Stage-1 and 2 boosters are fueled separately via a mobile tank and metal pipe
4) Fueling requires 10-odd hours to complete
5) Risk of launch high once fueled (missiles are usable for up to 3-days owing to the rate with which fuel deteriorates)
S. Korea analyzes North Korea's objective(s) as being:
- 1) Use crisis to "shake-up" the US
2) Provoke an invitation for direct negotiations
3) Demonstrate the progress of their military technology
4) Focus the attention of its people away from their daily suffering and instead on the notion of National prestige
update 6/20: YOMIURI (center-right) reported at 20:46 on 6/20:
South Korean intelligence judges the fueling of the missiles to be incomplete. The country's intelligence community has observed roughly 40 tanks at the site presumed to hold roughly 65 tons of fuel. This is not believed to be sufficient for missiles' propulsion systems. The report did, however, admit that the missiles' status is difficult to determine.
update 6/20: earlier reports indicating fueling was complete are now believed to be based on incomplete information, the Washington Post says. The same paper hints that this is just another in a long line of North Korean gestures meant to provoke the attention of the world.
The main issue for North Korea is US monetary sanctions (金融制裁):
The country's stability is directly related to the "thinning flow of what might be called 'blood' money." but the US remains persistent in its demand for North Korea to return to the six-party nuclear proliferation talks.
"It's because of the United States' hostile policies that we have little choice but to expand our [self defensive] military power." -North Korea Department of International Affairs
From North Korea's viewpoint, developing missiles is a right of a sovereign nation. For a North Korea seeking nullification of monetary sanctions, reinstating a missle launch moritorium becomes an ingredient for negotiations with the U.S.
This article's author concludes by surmising North Korea's goals also include two other aspects: the display of its military might for the benefit of its citizens and the re-affirming of the union's system.
